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Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio
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Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio : ウィキペディア英語版
Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,〔 is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.〔(【引用サイトリンク】 title=Price to 10 Year Inflation Adjusted Earnings )〕 As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.〔(Shiller, R The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations ''New York Times'' 14 Aug 2014 )〕
==Background==

Value investors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd argued for smoothing a firm's earnings over the past five to ten years in their classic text ''Security Analysis''. Graham and Dodd noted one-year earnings were too volatile to offer a good idea of a firm's true earning power. In a 1988 paper 〔(【引用サイトリンク】title=Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends )〕 economists John Y. Campbell and Robert Shiller concluded that "a long moving average of real earnings helps to forecast future real dividends" which in turn are correlated with returns on stocks. The idea is to take a long-term average of earnings (typically 5 or 10 year) and adjust for inflation to forecast future returns. The long term average smooths out short term volatility of earnings and medium-term business cycles in the general economy and they thought it was a better reflection of a firm's long term earning power.
Shiller later popularized the 10-year version of Graham and Dodd's P/E as a way to value the stock market.〔(【引用サイトリンク】 title=P/E 10 Ratio )〕 Shiller would share the Nobel prize in 2013 for his work in the empirical analysis of asset prices.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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